- July 7, 2022
- Posted by: XRPLedgerETF
- Category: Club Member News
It has been a while since our last market report, and frankly not much has changed since. The US Fed continues on their schedule of rate hikes to fight the extremely high inflation numbers, causing risk assets to fall. If the current cycle is like the previous ones, we could confidently say that we are at or near the bear market bottom, however the economic conditions are very different from previous years. If the highly anticipated recession comes to fruition, we will likely see a full retrace across nearly all major cryptos, wiping out all the gains from this past bull market. However, with high employment numbers and minimal economic slowdown, a prolonged recessionary period is currently unlikely. As always, keep your eyes on the price of BTC in the coming months. If we see a breakdown into the $16k range, we could be looking at a worst case scenario for crypto, putting the full retrace hypothesis into play. In contrast, if BTC is able to climb back above $30k and hold that level for multiple weeks, the bottom is likely in. This does not mean the bull market will magically return, as previous bear markets have seen 100%+ rallies in BTC as well as many alts only to fall back to the bear market lows throughout the many months of the bear market. Right now is likely a good time to begin accumulating spot crypto for the next bull cycle, which some are predicting to come as early as mid-late 2024.
While the fed aggressively raising rates greatly reduces the amount of “funny money” in the market, a sudden halt to the rate hiking schedule is of greater concern for the broad markets than if rates continue to steadily rise over the next year. The Fed is engaged in a high stakes balancing act of reducing inflation without throwing the economy into a recession, and a retreat in rate hikes would clearly show that the economy is not performing well in this hawkish environment. But to end on a positive note, the Ripple v SEC case will likely wrap up within the next 6-8 months, with closing argument currently agreed to occur before Christmas of this year. While the outcome is unknown, more clarity for crypto is always a good thing in the long term. Additionally, we have high hopes that XLS20D will be voted in before the end of this year, hopefully attracting NFT investors to the XRPL. For now, accumulate high conviction crypto, and be wary of a breakdown in the price of BTC.